Eighty20, South Africa’s leading consumer analytics, strategy and research company analysed the Budget Speech using a combination of economic and secondary data sources – including MAPS, BrandMapp, Credit Bureau, the Labour Force Survey to offer a meaningful perspective on what it means for real South Africans. We examine six key areas: unemployment, education, health, debt, social grants, and transport.

Minister of Finance, Enoch Godongwana’s started his speech harking back to the dark days 5 years ago when Covid was devastating communities and businesses, state-owned entities had been weakened from state capture, and our country had been downgraded to junk status by credit ratings agencies. He spoke of many improvements, including debt stabilisation, infrastructure expenditure and disciplined fiscal spend.

Unemployment

South Africa’s unemployment crisis remains one of our most urgent and alarming challenges, with the country consistently recording among the highest unemployment rates in the world. Despite the severity of this issue, the budget offered almost no meaningful focus on unemployment or dedicated funding to tackle it, aside from efforts to improve educational outcomes for learners. While there was reference to R319 million for the Presidential Employment Initiative within the provincial equitable share, as well as R21.3 billion allocated to the health sector for the employment of doctors, these measures fall far short of the scale required to confront our unemployment emergency.

From the 2026 Budget Speech:

‘To secure the skills essential to a modern economy, government is reforming the national skills ecosystem. The skills development levy paid by employers to fund Sector Education and Training Authorities, or SETAs, and the National Skills Fund, have not yielded the outcomes we expected. We must improve how we equip individuals ready to enter the labour market. Beyond providing them a theoretical understanding, the government will explore ways to reorganise training by introducing a dual-training skills acquisition system. We are also looking at how institutions with the capacity to train jobseekers and graduates can tool them with artisanal skills.”

Unemployment, and in particular youth unemployment is at crisis levels in South Africa. If we compare to 2018 when Cyril Ramaphosa became president, the table below shows that the population of 15 to 34-year-olds has only grown 3.3%, against a backdrop of a total population growth of 8.7%. In that same period, the total number of unemployed grew by nearly 30%, while the number of unemployed people aged 15-34 years grew by just over 18%.

Number of unemployed by age (Labour Force Survey):

Education:

In South Africa, the path to a better life is paved through education – and the data is clear, investing in education is the single most powerful tool to combat poverty, inequality, and unemployment. There is an almost perfect correlation between any socio-economic measure (SEM, LSM or income) and level of education.

From the 2026 Budget Speech:

“In terms of consolidated expenditure, spending on education remains the largest component at 23.7 per cent over the medium term. Basic education receives R22.7 billion for carry-through costs announced in May 2025. Early childhood development receives the majority of these funds. R9.9 billion supports employee compensation and other pressures in education. Early childhood development grant receives an additional R12.8 billion over the next three years, expanding service to an additional 300 000 children. This will also maintain the increased per child, per-day subsidy of R24 introduced in 2025/26. The increased allocations align the National School Nutrition Programme to food inflation to continue providing meals to over 9.9 million learners in almost 20 000 schools.”

Among roughly 35-million South Africans aged 25+, 5% have no schooling, 47% have some schooling, 40% have a matric and 9% have a post-matric education. Interestingly males and females fair almost identically across this measure.

Highest Level of Education Completed (Aged 25+) (General Household Survey):

Health:

Fewer than 10 million of the country’s 63-million citizens belong to a medical scheme. Resulting in roughly 15% having access to private healthcare, leaving the vast majority dependent on an over-burdened public health system.

Yet the financial weight carried by this small minority is striking when placed alongside public spending figures. Those 9.13m beneficiaries were responsible for R227bn in medical scheme contributions with a further R24.3bn in contributions to medical savings accounts, for a total of a quarter of a trillion rand. This figure is misleading though, as it excludes all medical costs not covered by medical aid and savings, which is substantial.

It must also be noted that the total incomes of the minority who say they have medical aid in the MAPS data is about 35% of all incomes in South Africa. This segment is funding not only their own medical aid but also paying the taxes that pay for the public health service.

The government has increased health spending from R277 billion in 2024/25 to R329 billion by 2027/28, indicating a significant investment in health services.

From the 2026 Budget Speech:

“R26 billion is allocated to provinces to bolster our HIV/AIDS programme such as the prevention of mother-to-child transmission and the provision of anti-retro virals. As part of the targeted and responsible savings initiative, provinces will repurpose some of their funding to meet obligations towards PEPFAR. This follows the funding withdrawal by the United States. R21.3 billion is allocated to the health sector over the medium term for the compensation and employment of doctors, and to make up for shortfalls in goods and services expenditure.”

Distribution of Medical Aid Beneficiaries vs SA Population (Census 2022, CMS Annual Report 2024/25):

Debt

From the 2026 Budget Speech:

“Gross debt stabilises as a share of GDP in 2025/26, at 78.9%. In 2026/27 it falls further, to 77.3% of GDP and declines to 76.5% by 2028/29. The slightly higher debt peaks this year reflects weaker nominal GDP growth and our decision to take advantage of strong investor demand in domestic and global markets by increasing issuance in 2025/26.”

It is somewhat spurious to compare debt as share of GDP to a household’s debt to income ratio, but just as a bank assesses whether your income can comfortably service your debt, investors and rating agencies assess whether a country’s economy generates enough output to service its borrowing. In both cases, it is not the size of the debt that matters most, it is the relationship between debt and the ability to repay.

Instalment to Net Monthly Income Ratio for Eighty20 National Segments (Credit Bureau and ENS):

Social Grants:

The Minister of Finance in his speech spoke to 26.5m beneficiaries and an allocation of R292.8bn in the budget, with increases to each grant category.

From the 2026 Budget Speech:

“Enhanced targeting of social grants authentication of beneficiaries to reduce fraud in the grant system will yield R3bn of savings. The South African Social Security Agency has upgraded its biometric and income verification processes, resulting in nearly 35 000 grants being identified as incorrect or fraudulent, and therefore terminated.”

Social grants play a critical role in South Africa’s social protection system, and according to the General Household Survey (GHS) 2025, 25.4 million South Africans (40.1% of the population) receive these grants. The increasing dependence on grants reflects broader socioeconomic pressures, with unemployment and poverty driving more households to rely on state support.

Percentage of people who receive a social grant, by province (General Household Survey):

Transport:

In the 2026 State of the Nation Address, President Cyril Ramaphosa confirmed plans to develop high-speed rail corridors linking Johannesburg, eThekwini (Durban), and Musina, with nearly 30 companies expressing interest in participating in the project.

From the 2026 Budget Speech:

“SANRAL will focus on strengthening long-term network resilience. This includes the annual maintenance of approximately 27,000 kilometres and the resurfacing of 2,000 kilometres of road. The Passenger Rail Agency of South Africa (PRASA) will continue implementing its corridors recovery programme and modernising core infrastructure to rebuild a reliable, affordable rail service for commuters. This will enable the increase in annual passenger trips from 77 million in 2024/25 to between 250 and 450 million over the medium term.”

The chart below speaks to what forms of transport people have used, to get an indication of the possibilities, rather than what people currently use, which may be biased by lack of infrastructure.

Personal frequency of mode of travel (EVER) (MAPS):

The most used transport for South Africans is minibus/taxi. 41% of all adults have travelled, compared with 18% who have travelled on any other train and 16% who have travelled on the Gautrain (The finance minister said the process of procuring a new vendor for the Gautrain rapid rail link system is advanced).

“The Budget Speech is at its core, a set of promises, and data is how we hold those promises to account. For millions of South Africans navigating unemployment, crumbling infrastructure, stretched clinics, rising debt and unreliable transport, the figures in this year’s budget are not abstractions, they are a lived reality. Eighty20’s data makes clear the gap between policy intention and what is happening in our beloved country,” states Eighty20.

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