The renewed conflict in the Middle East will have a profound impact on global inflationary pressures. Less than a week into the conflict, global markets responded with sharp increases in energy prices with brent crude surging from under $60 to nearly $120 per barrel.

These energy shocks are already transmitting into broader inflation, from fuel and transport costs to food and manufacturing inputs. The rapid escalation in oil prices will push headline inflation higher, particularly in energy import dependent countries like South Africa.

Against this backdrop, Eighty20, South Africa’s leading consumer strategy, research and analytics firm examines how the inflation picture has shifted over the past year, as the country emerged from a prolonged period of elevated price pressure into what may prove to be a very brief window of relief.

❝ Headline inflation cooled to 3.0% in February, down from 3.5% in January, with a monthly CPI movement of just 0.4%.

That relief arrived in StatsSA’s February 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. Headline inflation cooled to 3.0% in February, down from 3.5% in January, with a monthly CPI movement of just 0.4%. Food inflation eased for the first time in four months, and meat prices posted their first decline in nearly a year. It reads like a calm before the storm.

Measuring inflation requires a consistent and representative snapshot of what South Africans spend their money on. To achieve this, StatsSA regularly collects prices for thousands of items across the country. Each item is weighted according to its share of household spending, and together they form a basket of nearly 400 goods and services – known as the COICOP list – that serves as the foundation for South Africa’s CPI.

CPI tracks the weighted average price of this basket over time, making it the country’s primary measure of inflation and a key indicator of how the cost of living is changing for the population. Importantly, it captures different geographic areas, and the basket’s granular structure of items grouped into categories and subcategories allows analysts to study inflation trends at diverse levels of detail, from broad spending categories down to individual goods.

2025 vs. 2026 Inflation

The two tables below compare the items that have displayed the strongest price growth over the past year, comparing February 2025, when US tariffs were just emerging as a new economic reality, against the most recent figures from February 2026.

This month’s inflation story is largely about meat, seven of the top ten highest-inflation categories are meat products, with chicken in the top 20. There is, however, a welcome relief for lower-income households: staples like samp, dried beans, and electricity, which featured prominently in last year’s top ten, have since dropped down, providing relief to those households who have an outsized percentage of their income going to food.

Looking back five years

We also examined how prices have shifted over the past five years since 2021 – a period that encompassed emergence from a global pandemic, a war in Europe, and a sustained cycle of monetary tightening. The biggest mover was instant coffee, up a massive 85.7%, followed by electricity at 74.7%, reflecting Eskom’s successive tariff increases over the period. Also in the top ten were paraffin, toothpaste, laundry soap, cat food, and of course, chocolate.

Not all prices move in one direction, however. A handful of items have experienced sustained deflation, a pattern typically associated with weak demand, excess supply, or rapid technological improvement. Leading that list is cell phones, followed by televisions, laptops, books, watches, and microwaves. This is a global trend: the actual cost of consumer electronics has fallen consistently for decades as manufacturing efficiencies and competitive markets keep prices in check, even as most other goods become more expensive.

❝ Eighty20 will be tracking inflation over the coming months as the impact of the conflict in the Middle East puts pressure on oil prices.

Eighty20 will be tracking inflation over the coming months as the impact of the conflict in the Middle East puts pressure on oil prices.

Looking ahead

Fuel prices present the most immediate and direct hit. South Africa imports more than 20 billion litres of crude oil and refined petroleum products each year, all priced in US dollars, meaning geopolitical shocks transmit almost immediately into the domestic economy. South Africans potentially face the largest fuel price hikes on record, as the 21-cent fuel tax comes into effect as well on 1 April.

South Africa will need more US dollars to pay for higher-priced oil, which increases demand for dollars and puts pressure on the rand, further exacerbating the cost of all imports.

Food inflation will rise next. Fertiliser prices are likely to rise as agricultural input costs climb alongside oil as the Gulf region is a major fertiliser producer. Broader supply chain costs will also filter through with longer voyage distances and schedule disruptions reducing global shipping capacity.

The South African Reserve Bank had been widely expected to begin cutting borrowing costs in 2026, but some analysts are now pricing in the possibility of a 25-basis-point rate hike rather than the cut that was previously expected.

Investec’s chief economist Annabel Bishop estimated that oil prices around $110 per barrel combined with a weaker rand could push consumer inflation above 4% year-on-year in Q2 2026 which would erase much of the progress made in 2025 when inflation fell to near the Reserve Bank’s 3% target.

“Hopefully, South Africa’s 2026 Budget, which struck a careful balance of scrapping previously planned tax hikes, protecting the social wage, and maintaining fiscal discipline will provide a degree of stability that could help cushion the economy in the short term against these external shocks,” concludes Eighty20.

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