AMPS has been reweighted and shows some interesting movements within SA’s banking sector
The reweighted AMPS has been released, and since it was only the demographics that have been updated, it was unexpected that there would be brand movement as well. Despite this, Capitec has overtaken FNB to claim the position as the second biggest bank in South Africa, by number of customers, based on the survey question “What is your main bank for all banking transactions“. In the 2015B AMPS release, Capitec was in third place on the ‘Main Bank’ variable but had already moved into the second position on the multiple response variable ‘Financial Institution’ which accounts for those who have multiple bank accounts.
Some argue that if the AMPS 2016 update was measuring market size due to brand movement (i.e. more people responding that they have an account at the bank), Capitec would have gone to first place in at least one of those categories. While this may be the case, it is clear from the reweighted AMPS that Capitec is benefiting from a double tail wind of market share growth as well as being strong in the fastest growing demographic segments in South Africa.
While the overall population growth shown in the AMPS 2016 update is roughly 4%, with the adult population aged 15 or older growing from 38.2 million to 39.7 million, there was significantly larger growth among key segments as calculated by Nielsen (see more detail here). This helps explains Capitec’s movement, as detailed below.
*A note on the shifts: Some of these population shifts appear to be high, some may say unbelievably high. However, our understanding is that StatsSA made corrections to the population estimates of certain areas which resulted in the above average increases.
Major population shifts in AMPS 2016 update and the influence on Capitec’s movement
1. The 25 – 34 year old youth population grew by 17%. According to AMPS, Capitec is the leading bank in the youth segment.
2. The Northern Cape had the highest population growth at 11%. According to AMPS, Capitec is the leading bank in the Northern Cape
3. The Black and Coloured population groups saw 5% growth respectively. Conversely, the Indian and White population groups changed by 3% and -4% respectively. According to AMPS, Capitec is the largest bank among the Black and Coloured population groups.